Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
