Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
